Ghana stands at the threshold of a major trade realignment.
By the end of October 2025, the government is expected to finalise a zero-tariff trade agreement with China, granting Ghanaian goods duty-free access to the world’s second-largest economy.
For a country seeking to diversify exports, enhance foreign exchange earnings and boost industrial transformation, this presents both an unprecedented opportunity and a significant policy challenge.
China’s decision to grant 100 per cent duty-free treatment to least developed countries creates an opening for products like cocoa derivatives, shea butter, processed fruits, textiles and light manufacturing goods to enter a market of over 1.4 billion consumers.
But as history shows, market access on paper does not automatically translate into market penetration in practice. To succeed, Ghana must build the capacity to compete, not just to trade.
Learning from Africa’s experience
Africa’s own trade experiences with China offer crucial lessons. Kenya provides a cautionary example. In early 2024, its avocado exports to China plunged by nearly 80 per cent, from 3.6 million kg to about 740,000kg despite tariff-free access.
Analysts attributed this decline to logistics difficulties, cold-chain gaps, shifting market priorities and distribution problems.
The key point: gaining access is not the same as holding market share.
Ethiopia’s sesame exports present the opposite story. Over two decades, sesame became Ethiopia’s dominant export to China, supported not only by tariff preferences but also by the country’s capacity to meet quality standards, scale production and sustain trade relationships.
Ethiopia’s success demonstrates how domestic competitiveness can turn trade preferences into real economic gains.
Ghana must learn from both cases: preferential access creates the door, but only competitiveness determines who walks through it.
Structural gaps that still matter
Ghana has laid significant groundwork for trade expansion. Institutions such as Ghana EXIM Bank, the Agricultural Development Bank (ADB) and a newly launched and seeded Ghana Development Bank (DBG) provide financing support to exporters and agro-industrial firms.
Ghana also has a functional perishable export ecosystem, with packhouses, SPS compliance systems and cold-chain facilities that serve the European Union’s stringent markets.
However, the core issue is not the absence of infrastructure or institutions, but their scale, affordability and competitiveness compared to those of China.
Ghanaian exporters continue to face high interest rates, short credit maturities, and working capital shortages, while Chinese firms operate with large, low-cost, state-backed credit lines.
This financing gap has a direct impact on exporters’ ability to scale production, invest in technology and compete internationally.
Logistics face similar pressures. Ghana’s cold chain works well for a limited number of organised exporters but is not yet scaled for the volume and speed that a zero-tariff trade relationship
with China could bring. Transport costs remain high, and energy prices add another layer of pressure.
Frequent power fluctuations and high input costs erode margins, whereas Chinese producers enjoy reliable power and economies of scale.
Rules of origin will also require Ghana to build stronger local supply chains to qualify fully for tariff benefits.
Strategic sectors for early wins
Despite these challenges, several sectors offer immediate opportunities. Cocoa derivatives, including butter, powder and chocolate, are well placed to climb the value chain.
Shea products, especially cosmetics and personal care items, are gaining demand among China’s growing urban middle class.
Processed fruits and juices like dried mango and pineapple can expand their footprint if logistics improve, while cashew processing offers a path to retain more value domestically instead of exporting raw nuts.
Dumping risks, trade defence
While zero tariffs create opportunities, they also introduce real risks, especially the possibility of dumping. Chinese firms, benefiting from economies of scale and state support, could export low-cost goods to Ghana at prices below production costs, potentially undermining local industries.
Sectors such as light manufacturing, consumer goods and textiles could be particularly vulnerable.
This outcome is not inevitable. Ghana can protect itself by enforcing strict rules of origin, introducing safeguard clauses, strengthening anti-dumping measures and improving its capacity to monitor trade flows.
Smart trade defence strategies would allow Ghana to protect local industries, while still benefiting from export opportunities in the Chinese market. Many emerging economies, such as South Africa, Vietnam and Brazil, have successfully managed such dual strategies.
Infrastructure, policy
Ghana can magnify the benefits of zero-tariff access through complementary infrastructure and productivity measures. Two government initiatives stand out.
The Volta Lake Corridor Project aims to transform Lake Volta into a logistics hub linking production centres in the north to export gateways in the south. This would reduce transport costs, ease congestion and speed up cargo movement, making exports more competitive.
Meanwhile, the proposed 24-Hour Economy can enhance supply chain reliability. By enabling continuous operations at ports, factories and transport systems, Ghana can increase output, reduce turnaround times and position itself as a reliable trading partner for China, a market where speed and consistency matter as much as price.
Seizing moment
The zero-tariff agreement with China represents a strategic opening, not a guaranteed outcome. If Ghana simply signs the agreement without addressing underlying competitiveness issues, the gains will be minimal. But if it pairs preferential access with targeted investments in export finance, logistics expansion, industrial upgrading and trade defence, it can transform its export base.
This is not just about selling more goods to China. It is about repositioning Ghana as a value-added exporter in global markets, creating sustainable jobs, building industrial depth and ensuring fair competition.
Zero tariffs can be the spark, but competitiveness will be the engine.
The writer is a lecturer,
Faculty of Business Administration,
Pentecost University; researcher, international trade & investment policy.
E-mail: abamo@pentvars.edu.gh
