Ukraine’s diplomatic offensive

In an attempt to draw attention and sympathy for itself and amid downward fortunes in its war against Russia, Ukraine has launched what is normally called a Diplomatic Offensive in her Foreign Policy. 

A Diplomatic Offensive is a planned set of actions intended to influence a lot of people and/or countries. Ukraine is locked in a fierce existential war with Russia over the former’s intention to join NATO and the latter’s perception of any such act as an existential threat.

You would not need basic rudiments of International Relations/Security to understand that NATO’s expansion since the implosion of the Soviet Union and the demise of the Warsaw Pact had created a security dilemma for Russia over the years.

NATO has succeeded in drawing to its orbit about fourteen countries, former members of the erstwhile Warsaw Pact. This, according to Prof. Jeffery Sachs, is against the spirit and letter of the protocols that allowed for German reunification.

Then, NATO had promised not to extend an inch eastward. But since 1992, it has expanded to the borders of Russia. Russia had all along been complaining about this. But in 2008 at the Bucharest Meeting of NATO, it was decided to add Georgia and Ukraine as new members of NATO. 

Georgia invasion

Russia called it the RED LINE and showed its anger by invading Georgia. Throughout 2021, Russia kept complaining about Ukrainian behaviour, especially the mistreatment of the Russian-speaking citizens of Donetsk and Lugansk regions.

Within the period, the flirtation with the West and/or NATO also intensified.  Three very important letters by Russia to Ukraine and the EU/NATO spelt out Russia’s concerns and how to avert war. Since nothing was done, war became inevitable.

Ukrainian miscalculation was that NATO would automatically come to its aid in the form of troops. It also erroneously thought that the many years of secret training of its elite troops in the UK and Germany would be enough to withstand the Russian Bear. Russia attacked in February 2022 and since then, the DONBASS has fallen into Russian hands. Both sides have experienced heavy casualties.

NATO and its member countries (Germany, the UK, Poland, and especially the US), have sent tonnes of arms and ammunition to Ukraine. Since February 2022, most Western nations have pledged more than $380 billion in aid to Ukraine, including nearly $118 billion in direct military aid from individual countries.

The Ukraine Defense Contact Group comprising all 30 member nations of NATO and 24 others have donated military aid individuals as sovereign countries and collectively via EU institutions to Ukraine.

The US Central Command announced the transfer of thousands of machine guns, sniper rifles, rocket launchers and hundreds of thousands of rounds of ammunition seized from Iran to Ukraine last week. This is beyond the direct billions of dollars supplied to Ukraine. Yet, the tide has not changed. The expected outcome — a Russian retreat — has not happened, rather, Ukraine seems to have lost much territory and men.

Clearly, Ukraine has been suffering from shortages of weapons and munitions on the battlefield in its war against Russia, with the US unable to send more equipment from its stockpiles until Congress approves more funding.

Diplomatic offensive

Against the background of the above, Ukraine launched a diplomatic offensive with a specific objective. It has also revised conscription laws. The Diplomatic Offensive on one front is to ensure the isolation of Russia through propaganda and smear campaigns. In this, Ukraine could count on the full support of the West.

This was led by the President himself, Volodymyr Zelensky, who has toured the whole of Europe and the US addressing Parliaments, the UN, etc., and soliciting not only moral support but also arms and ammunition.  

It is in this light that the Charge’ de Affaires of the newly established Embassy of Ukraine in Accra, His Excellency Ivan Lukachuk, published a very lucid article (March 8, 2024, in the Daily Graphic), in which he sought to solicit Ghana’s support in their war against Russia.

There was a very important issue he raised in the article referred to here. Hear him: “Ukraine understands the need to create a new international security system that would effectively respond to today’s threats and challenges. The role of Ghana in this process will be significant” (caps mine)

Yes, there was a need for a new international architecture at the demise of the Cold War. An international system based on the anachronistic 1945 UN system is bound to hiccup as badly as it is now.

What, for example, is the continued existence of NATO in a rule-based international system? The role of Ghana can only be an advocacy to draw down the swords in the war with Russia.

It is time to talk peace. The intermittent successful strikes at Russian towns cannot win the war for Ukraine. Benny Sanders, Prof. Maeshermer, the late Henry Kissinger and many more prominent persons have blamed the war on the US and NATO.

Most of them (Kissinger, especially) have called for Ukraine to cede the Donbas and Crimea to Russia for peace. Crimea, for instance, historically had never been part of Ukraine, until 1954, when Khrushchev, for administrative expediency, added it to Ukraine.

It is unthinkable that today, Russia would let go of Crimea, a territory it had acquired through war since 1783. The bottom line is that Ukraine should start thinking about peace talks.

She should not be fooled by the patches of arms and ammunition from the West. After all, it is Ukrainians who are suffering.